Balanced budget multiplier with indirect taxes under imperfect competition

This paper presents two counter-examples to the Keynesian features attributed to imperfect competition in general equilibrium models. In particular, by considering indirect tax rates, a non positive and monotonically non-increasing relationship between the magnitude of both the balanced budget and welfare multipliers and market-power is obtained.

Urban Data in the primary classroom: bringing data literacy to the UK curriculum

As data becomes established as part of everyday life, the ability for the average citizen to have some level of data literacy is increasingly important. This paper describes an approach to teaching data skills in schools using real life, complex, urban data sets collected as part of a smart city project. The approach is founded on the premise that young learners have the ability to work with complex data sets if they are supported in the right way and if the tasks are grounded in a real life context. Narrative principles are used to frame the task, to assist interpretation and tell stories from data and to structure queries of datasets. An inquiry-based methodology organises the activities. This paper describes the initial trial in a UK primary school in which twelve students aged 9-10 years learnt about home energy consumption and the generation of solar energy from home solar PV, by interpreting existing visualisations of smart meter data and data obtained from aerial survey. Additional trials are scheduled with older learners which will evaluate learners on more challenging data handling tasks. The trials are informing the development of the Urban Data School, a web-based platform designed to support teaching data skills in schools in order to improve data literacy among school leavers

Trajectory Synthesis for Fisher Information Maximization

Estimation of model parameters in a dynamic system can be significantly improved with the choice of experimental trajectory. For general, nonlinear dynamic systems, finding globally "best" trajectories is typically not feasible; however, given an initial estimate of the model parameters and an initial trajectory, we present a continuous-time optimization method that produces a locally optimal trajectory for parameter estimation in the presence of measurement noise. The optimization algorithm is formulated to find system trajectories that improve a norm on the Fisher information matrix. A double-pendulum cart apparatus is used to numerically and experimentally validate this technique. In simulation, the optimized trajectory increases the minimum eigenvalue of the Fisher information matrix by three orders of magnitude compared to the initial trajectory. Experimental results show that this optimized trajectory translates to an order of magnitude improvement in the parameter estimate error in practice.Comment: 12 page

Creating an Understanding of Data Literacy for a Data-driven Society

Society has become increasingly reliant on data, making it necessary to ensure that all citizens are equipped with the skills needed to be data literate. We argue that the foundations for a data literate society begin by acquiring key data literacy competences in school. However, as yet there is no clear definition of what these should be. This paper explores the different perspectives currently offered on both data and statistical literacy and then critically examines to what extent these address the data literacy needs of citizens in today’s society. We survey existing approaches to teaching data literacy in schools, to identify how data literacy is interpreted in practice. Based on these analyses, we propose a definition of data literacy that is focused on employing an inquiry-based approach to using data to understand real world phenomena. The contribution of this paper is the creation of a common foundation for teaching and learning data literacy skills

Prediction-based classification for longitudinal biomarkers

Assessment of circulating CD4 count change over time in HIV-infected subjects on antiretroviral therapy (ART) is a central component of disease monitoring. The increasing number of HIV-infected subjects starting therapy and the limited capacity to support CD4 count testing within resource-limited settings have fueled interest in identifying correlates of CD4 count change such as total lymphocyte count, among others. The application of modeling techniques will be essential to this endeavor due to the typically nonlinear CD4 trajectory over time and the multiple input variables necessary for capturing CD4 variability. We propose a prediction-based classification approach that involves first stage modeling and subsequent classification based on clinically meaningful thresholds. This approach draws on existing analytical methods described in the receiver operating characteristic curve literature while presenting an extension for handling a continuous outcome. Application of this method to an independent test sample results in greater than 98% positive predictive value for CD4 count change. The prediction algorithm is derived based on a cohort of $n=270$ HIV-1 infected individuals from the Royal Free Hospital, London who were followed for up to three years from initiation of ART. A test sample comprised of $n=72$ individuals from Philadelphia and followed for a similar length of time is used for validation. Results suggest that this approach may be a useful tool for prioritizing limited laboratory resources for CD4 testing after subjects start antiretroviral therapy.Comment: Published in at http://dx.doi.org/10.1214/10-AOAS326 the Annals of Applied Statistics (http://www.imstat.org/aoas/) by the Institute of Mathematical Statistics (http://www.imstat.org

Metodología de la Atención Primaria Orientada a la Comunidad (APOC). Elementos para su práctica

Podríamos definir la APOC como "la práctica de la atención primaria con responsabilidad poblacional, orientada a la mejora de la salud de una comunidad definida, basada en la identificación de las necesidades de salud y las acciones de atención correspondientes, con la participación de la comunidad y con la coordinación de todos los servicios implicados en la salud o en sus determinantes". Se trata de un proceso en el que los servicios de atención primaria se responsabilizan de la salude todos los miembros de la comunidad y no tan sólo de los usuarios de los servicios. Esta característica le atribuye una diferencia fundamental con los servicios tradicionales, orientados básicamente a la curación y tratamiento de síntomas y enfermedades de la población que demanda servicios, por lo que la APOC se convierte en una alternativa consistente para la re-orientación de los servicios con el objetivo de mejorar la salud de la población en su conjunto. Las acciones en la APOC, integran las propias de la atención primaria con otras de salud pública a nivel local. Los elementos necesarios para que un servicio de atención primaria de salud pueda aplicar la metodología APOC son básicamente: una comunidad definida; una práctica de atención primaria integral y con responsabilidad longitudinal y de coordinación; unos servicios de salud accesibles y próximos a la comunidad; la orientación a la comunidad en su conjunto y no sólo a la demandante de servicios; la participación de la comunidad con el objetivo de alcanzar la toma de responsabilidad en la promoción y el mantenimiento de su propia salud; un equipo de trabajo multidisciplinario; y un equipo con capacidad de movilizarse fuera del centro de salud para reconocer el entorno del individuo y de las familias. El ciclo metodológico de la APOC comprende las etapas denominadas como: examen preliminar de la comunidad, priorización de los problemas de salud, diagnostico comunitario del problema(s) seleccionado(s), planificación, implementación y evaluación de la intervención comunitaria, y re-examen de la situación inicial. Se recomienda el uso de métodos de asesoría rápida para la primera etapa del proceso y como criterios principales para priorizar el problema(s) sobre el que se va a intervenir: la importancia de dicho problema, así como la factibilidad y la efectividad de las alternativas de intervención posibles. Para la planificación de las etapas posteriores, la metodología más recomendable será la que permita adaptarse a los ritmos propios del trabajo con la comunidad con las incertidumbres y cambios que la participación comunitaria conlleva